1.
J.
Biden
2.
E.
Warren
3.
B.
Sanders
4.
P.
Buttigieg
5.
A.
Yang
6.
A.
Klobuchar
7.
C.
Booker
8.
T.
Gabbard
9.
T.
Steyer
10. J. Castro
Here is the most recent
At the national level,
the Dem nomination race never has been more stable than it has been over the last
couple of weeks. Now, there are candidates slotted into 1st through 4th
place, and none of them have meaningfully shifted in the polling average since
October. The last substantial change came as Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg
both picked up some points, apparently at the cost of Warren. It left Biden in
his longstanding role as a resilient, vulnerable and unmoving front-runner.
(K. Harris, who’d
fallen out of the top level of candidates and was polling within the low single
digits, quit her campaign on December 3rd.)
Right now, some of the
reason for the fairly static nature of the top level might be the media’s
overwhelming concentration on the House’s impeachment inquiry into Trump, which
consumed political oxygen that candidates might’ve otherwise utilized to
challenge each other and shake the race up.
Recently, there has
been more movement within the early caucus and primary states, with Buttigieg
surging inside Iowa and overtaking Warren within the most authoritative poll
there. Thus far, Buttigieg has only risen by more incremental margins outside
of Iowa, and his road to the nomination seems to rely upon a standout
performance there which transforms the national dynamics of the presidential
race. However, even Buttigieg’s localized strength already is complicating the
presidential race.
There are reasons to think
that the race might go through more pronounced changes soon. Cory Booker and Amy
Klobuchar, two underdog candidates, had solid debate performances on November
20th in Atlanta, and they’ll be translating that into momentum within Iowa. And
Deval Patrick and Michael R. Bloomberg both could shake up the presidential
campaign.
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