Beto
played games in the past with the media, yet he got the last chuckle of sorts by
dropping out of the race, sending writers into a panic directly before the
weekend. And even though the candidacy once had a lot promise, Beto’s exit from
the presidential race boiled down to his reduced fundraising numbers and weak
poll numbers, as well as the truth that he might never have had the support base
he required to really compete for the Dem. nomination.
Also,
his decline in the polls was accompanied by difficulties raising funds. In
2018, having been a fundraiser, Beto seemed able to attract the resources to operate
a top-level presidential campaign, and showed promise by raising over $6M within
the initial twenty-four hours of the campaign, the 2nd best opening day only after
former VP Joe Biden. However, fundraising dollars began to dry up briefly
thereafter. He’d raised just $13M by the 2nd quarter’s end, and only added another
over $4M in the 3rd quarter.
Beto’s
debate performances did not help him recover; as a matter of fact, his latest performance
hurt him. After October’s debate, his net favorability among Dem. primary
voters dipped by around six points in a post-debate Ipsos poll, the largest dip
for any of the twelve presidential candidates on stage. Beto’s place at further
debates was also in severe jeopardy. O’Rourke was 2 polls shy of making the Nov.
debate and had yet to register one survey for the Dec. debate.
However,
O’Rourke may always have had problems attracting a big enough support base within
the primary given the composition of the Dem. electorate. As a moderate 3-term congressman,
Beto won over several suburban Caucasian voters within his TX Senate bid, yet
as Nate Silver wrote back last July, a Caucasian moderate base, especially
younger ones, was not enough.
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